Commerce City, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

676
FXUS65 KBOU 111736
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1136 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds up to 50 mph from high based-showers and
  thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening.

- Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms continues Thursday
  and Friday.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible over the northeast
  plains Friday and Saturday.

- Warming trend through Sunday with the warmest temperatures this
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Updated to increase PoPs for today. Not that we are going to see
widespread rainfall, but the slight increase in moisture is
expected to lead to numerous high-based showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon, and then this evening over the eastern plains.
Gusty winds to 50 mph will be possible and even a few severe gusts
to near 60 mph can`t be ruled out. As far as rainfall goes, most
locations are expected to see very light rainfall (less than
0.05"). The heavier rainfall cores are expected to produce
0.10-0.20 (in) of rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

A warm dry airmass is in place across the area. Noon temperatures
were already well into the 80s with dew points in the 30s. The
latest hi-res models seem to agree we will see some high-based
convection later today, mainly in the form of showers, though a
few thunderstorms will be possible over the mountains. Any
rainfall, is expected light, but gusty outflow winds will be
likely due to the large temperature/dew point spreads. This
activity quickly dissipates this evening as the air stabilizes.

For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper level pattern is messy with
a trough over the Southern Plains and a second one passing north
of Colorado. Shortwave riding forms over Colorado in response to
the deepening trough to our southeast. Moisture does increase a
little for Wednesday and Thursday. This is expected to lead to an
increase in showers and thunderstorms. Limited moisture,
instability, and weak shear is expected to keep storms sub-severe.
The far eastern plains could see a couple severe storms if the
better instability and shear shifts westward a little. As far as
temperatures go, they are expected to stay above normal with highs
in the mid 80s to lower 90s across northeast Colorado.

On Friday, the shortwave ridging slides off to the east and flow
aloft increases. Large scale ridging begins, but is more
pronounced this weekend. Surface high pressure over the Northern
Plains will lead to east to southeast winds across the eastern
Colorado plains, increasing the moisture and shear. A dry line
sets up where the southeast winds intersect the drier west winds.
If we are to see severe thunderstorms this upcoming week, Friday
looks like the day as instability will be enough for strong/severe
storms. The storms could still run into issues forming, such as
too warm air aloft from the developing ridge and also we may not
see as much moisture return to the area as the models show.

Upper level ridge will be centered over the Central and Southern
Rockies this weekend. Not surprising, this will lead to warmer
temperatures with highs reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s across
northeast Colorado. Sunday is looking like the slightly warmer and
drier day. The 12Z GFS shows a decent batch of late afternoon and
evening showers/storms, but nearly all (more than 90%) of the
ensemble members of the GFS and ECMWF indicate dry conditions.
Given the ridging overhead along with the limited moisture and
instability, dry conditions would be expected.

For early next week (Monday and Tuesday), the ridging over the
region eventually is flattened or pushed off to the east by an
upper level trough moving in from the Pacific. Models still
greatly vary when and how this will happen. Will keep the cool
down gradual for Monday and Tuesday and PoPs generally on the low
side (20-30%) during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR to prevail through tonight and Thursday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected after 19Z across the Denver area. These
showers/storms will be high-based with gusty outflow winds to 40
knots being the main threat. Wind direction will be driven by the
outflows with several wind shifts possible. Rainfall is expected to
be brief and mostly light. Ceilings could briefly fall to around
6000-7000 feet under the strong showers/storms. The showers/storms
transition east of the Denver area 00Z to 02Z. Eventually southerly
drainage winds set in 03Z to 06Z. For Thursday, more gusty afternoon
showers and thunderstorms are expected after 19Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Meier
DISCUSSION...Meier
AVIATION...Meier